The Chepstow Racecourse Finale
April 26th, 2024
The Racing Horse has enjoyed this particular National Hunt Season at Chepstow more than any other, s[...]
KEMPTON Racecourse Template (Wednesday 18 May 2022)
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The Racing Horse offers our powerful Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 18 May 2022. There is a 7-race card containing 5 handicaps and 2 novice races. The going is expected to be standard to slow.Within this template we highlight the performance of Godolphin (28%), Appleby (29%), Suroor (21%) at this course over the past 5 years. Going forward there is little to no possibility of figure fatigue so our information lies between pertinent and valuable! |
Winning favourites (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 113-276 41% -32.85 33-117 28% -17.69 3yo 122-255 48% -11.64 149-496 30% -75.83 4yo+ 45-115 39% -20.13 244-774 32% -56.90 Total 280-646 43% -64.62 426-1387 31% -150.41 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for 2021 +/- E R Varian (20%) 17-54 for 31% (+15.08) +11% 0 A Balding (16%) 17-97 for 18% (+58.35) +2% 1 J & T Gosden (20%) 14-69 for 20% (-23.78) +0% 0 C Appleby (28%) 12-45 for 27% (-11.33) -1% 0 W Haggas (22%) 11-45 for 24% (-0.88) +2% 0 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E J & T Gosden (25%) 77-307 25% -25.75 +0% 0 R Varian (20%) 59-254 23% -5.53 +3% 0 A Balding (15%) 59-377 16% +53.41 +1% 1 R Hannon (12%) 55-536 10% -166.40 -2% 4 C Appleby (29%) 48-137 35% -20.34 +6% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for 2021 +/- R H Doyle (14%) 31-211 15% (-57.14) +1% 0 D Probert (11%) 24-192 13% (-4.56) +2% 6 O Murphy (19%) 23-91 25% (+1.43) +6% 0 R Kingscote (14%) 22-163 13% (-69.00) -1% 5 J Mitchell (17%) 18-109 17% (+21.45) +0% 0 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R O Murphy (19%) 96-513 19% -80.41 +0% 0 D Probert (12%) 83-776 11% -129.74 -1% 6 H Doyle (14%) 80-575 14% -105.85 +0% 0 T Marquand (14%) 72-613 12% -90.90 -2% 0 A Kirby (15%) 69-524 13% -164.23 -2% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (24%) 84-300 28% (-54.40) +3% 2 Hamdan Al Maktoum (21%) 44-176 25% (+47.66) +4% 0 King Power (15%) 25-133 19% (-19.43) +4% 1 K Abdullah (25%) 21-89 24% (-3.97) -1% 0 Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) 15-63 24% (-7.93) -1% 0 HOT TRAINERS 18/04/2022 to 17/05/2022 +/- E S bin Suroor (21%) 9-32 28% +7.33 +7% 2 G Boughey (18%) 15-62 24% +3.52 +6% 1 TRAINER COLD LIST SAW E S Dow (9%) 41 1 M Attwater (5%) 35 3 HOT JOCKEYS 18/04/2022 to 17/05/2022 +/- R B Curtis (16%) 26-95 27% +19.23 +11% 2 H Davies (18%) 9-38 24% +9.95 +6% 3 J Crowley (19%) 14-60 23% -0.33 +4% 3 D Muscutt (12%) 16-75 21% -15.57 +9% 3 JOCKEY COLD LIST SAW R Rob Hornby (10%) 40 3 FIXTURES Wednesday 18 May 2022 Wednesday 1 June 2022 Wednesday 8 June 2022 (%): National Average SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
FAVOURITES: The beauty of the Kempton Template is the sample size. It is our biggest aggregation and one we can trust (relatively speaking). We have won more money at this course than any other in the UK. We do have an edge that is still largely ignored by punditry in the shape of Godolphin and Charlie Appleby.
Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years show 670-1938 for 34.49% and a big loss to level stakes of -£210.85. However, favourites in non-handicaps win at 44% whilst just 30% in handicaps which is a fair bit below the national average of 32-33%. The best category for winning favourites at this course are 3yos in non-handicaps showing 114-236 for 48% (-9.04).
CHARLIE APPLEBY: With just a modicum of filtration the trainer MUST be followed at Kempton especially, here are his last 5-year figures on the UK AW courses. We are reminded he often doubles-up in races and uses apprentices, which not only dilutes his strike rate but negatively impacts on his profitability figure. We know the profit and loss figure bears little relevance to real life! He has a national average of 29% but beats that number on all of the AW courses with the exception of Chelmsford. Make no mistake - the following information represents an EDGE!
Chelmsford: 21-74 28% -30.18 Kempton: 48-137 35% -20.35 Lingfield: 21-67 31% -9.03 Newcastle: 16-44 36% +2.71 Southwell: 4-9 44% +1.93 Wolverhampton: 30-94 32% -18.05
Interesting to note that Godolphin retain a strike rate of 28% at Kempton despite having multiple runners in a single race where Saeed bin Suroor often opposes the runners of Charlie Appleby. Our belief is the Godolphin strike rate of 28% should be considerably upgraded at this course. If we do not back a Godolphin runner we never oppose it at Kempton. We also appreciate trainer John Gosden might also run Godolphin-owned runners at the course which is more likely to dilute the figures than enhance them! Charlie Appleby has 0 entries for Wednesday but Saeed bin Suroor (21%) has 2, both are worth a look given our rationale.
The importance of jockey bookings for Suroor does not carry the same weight of those for Appleby. FIRST VIEW 6.00 (Christian Howarth is 0-2 for the trainer) & DUBAI HORIZON 7.30 (Stefano Cherchi is 6-27 for 22% for the trainer)
TRAINERS: From now on we will add the figures of John Gosden to those of J & T Gosden for the past 5 year figures. If you remember John Gosden had a national average of 25% but since Thady officially took trainer status the national average has dropped to 20%. We will replicate this change with Mark & Charlie Johnson though the national average was 15% and it remains the same this season so far.
Top trainers at the track include Richard Hannon, who has 4 runners whilst Andrew Balding has 1.
JOCKEYS: David Probert has 6 rides tomorrow and Richard Kingscot 5, they will be typically competitive, but our hot jockey list looks the most interesting. Jim Crowley, Harry Davies and Danny Muscutt all have 3 rides each and Ben Curtis has 2. These 5 jockeys will surely ride most of the winners for this meeting!
OWNER: Godolphin apart, only King Power Racing (15%) have a runner in SKY POWER 7.30 currently at around 12/1
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5.30 6.00 6.30 7.00 7.30 8.00 8.30 |
| JASON WEAVER on KEMPTON
The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics. |