PACAFI (Monday 8 August 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

FARIBA 2.00 Kempton at 10/11

 Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) 1m

 COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form July AW: 2-7 for 29%   (10)  
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                                 
RPR: 85                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Standard to slow    (10)
Jockey: Neil Callan                 (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo:               (NA)           
Total:                              (90)
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Main Danger: Feyha
Alternative: Rosette

Full of promise on debut, more expected!

Fariba is a €24,000 yearling, €35,000 2yo, Farhh filly. Dam was an unraced half-sister to high-class winner up to 1½m Jack Hobbs. She ran a race full of promise at Newcastle on her debut, keeping on well to be beaten just over a length into fourth, almost making up for a poor start. Interesting her jockey gave her a very considerate ride especially in that final furlong and the filly will be better for it. That experience and an added furlong here look ideal, and she looks hard to beat in the same Class tomorrow.

Trainer and Jockey Form

Kevin Philipart De Foy only started training in November 2020 but has made an excellent start at this Newmarket Stables scoring 67-402 for a national average of 17%. His 2yos score at 15-108 for 14%. His best month for winners so far was June with 7 winners but he has scored 6 winners in both May and July. Kempton is his favourite course to date scoring 12-59 for 20% (-8.88). He has 4 runners today at 3 different courses and will be hoping for a win double.

He combines today with Neil Callan for the first time and they could be a good fit going forward. The jockey has always exuded class and been a good operator with a ton of experience, since making some new contacts after his spell in Hong Kong he has now hit tremendous form winning with 6 of his last 12 rides. We note the hard work of his agent as De Foy will be the 71st different trainer he has ridden for this year. His figures since he has come back to the UK are revealing:

August: 6-21 for 29%  (+1.33)
July:  13-76 for 17% (-18.49)
June:  16-72 for 22% (+88.48)
May:    5-53 for  9% (-18.25)
April:  5-44 for 11% (+11.00)
March:  4-17 for 24% (+32.38)

The public will see much more of him over the coming months and our best guess suggests he will beat his June total of 16 this month.

Contenders

Feyha offered encouragement with her Ffos Las fifth and may prove the biggest danger.  Rosette is open to progress. Epsom did not appear to suit on her 7f debut and today's extra furlong will suit on pedigree and she ought to fare much better. She was 5/1 as we went to post and the market will tell us more.

 Timeform

    FARIBA shaped well when fourth in a Newcastle maiden on debut, faring easily the best of those held up under a considerate ride, and looks the one to beat with improvement likely. Feyha also showed plenty to work on when fifth at Ffos Las and this stiffer test will suit, so is next best ahead of Rosette, who was too green to do herself justice at Epsom.

Value

We are not quite sure what perceived value is on this occasion. It looks as though we have Feyha to beat.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022.

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