SUSPICION 6.00 Southwell at 10/11

Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Novice Stakes (Class 4) 1m13y

Pedigree

65,000gns Y; first foal; dam unraced half-sister to winners Ninjago (6f-7f inc 2yo/AW/Listed) and Florestans Match (6f) out of French 7.5f-1m2f winner Fidelio's Miracle (inc 2yo/Listed)

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Trainer Form: 2-7 for 28%           (10)
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 50%             (10)
RPR: 89                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)      
Optimum Distance: 1m                (10)
Jockey: James Doyle                 (10)
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 33%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: NA          (10)
Total:                             (100)

Difficult to oppose

Suspicion is a Make Believe 3yo colt and a 65,000gns yearling whose dam is a half-sister to a Listed winner. He won a Class 5 Novice over the mile distance 29 days ago on his second start displaying a nice turn of foot on what looked to be a slow early pace. This big scopey individual has the size to carry a penalty and is expected to improve making him difficult to oppose!

Trainer Form

Ollie Sangster started training in April 2023 and has a national average of 17% scoring 16-96 (+1.69) and his best area so far is 3yo on the AW for 22%. He had 2 winners from 5 runners in February for 40% and 0-2 for March though one of those beaten was a second place finisher. This is the trainer's only runner and he gives James Doyle his third ride for him.

Contenders

King's Fountain is a twice-raced maiden and shown fair Newmarket form but has been off the track for 173 days and he might need this run before being ready. The Pacafi has already beaten Vibrato and has a right to finish closer but his encouraging fourth looks short. With just 5 runners there could be a tactical element but we have stall 2 and the excellent James Doyle to pilot.

 Timeform Comments 

SUSPICION looked a good prospect when going in at Kempton last time and is fancied to make light of his 6lb penalty at the chief expense of Vibrato, who made an encouraging start when fourth to Ollie Sangster's colt that day and can build on it now. King's Fountain appeals as the pick of the rest for minor honours.

Perceived Value

The 10/11 looks perceived value, we had priced him up closer to 4/5. Whilst the Pacafi does carry a penalty we are still trying to envisage how Vibrato can reverse the placings...

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