BLACKJACK KENTUCKY 12.55 Chepstow at 11/10

(2m7f131y) ''The Smart Money's On Coral'' Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+)

Pedigree: £100,000 Che Dec 17; 7th foal; half-brother to winners Thyne For Gold (2m4f-2m7f jumps) & Champagne Present (3m hurdle); dam 2m6f/3m hurdle winner, half-sister to useful 2m jump winner Clew Bay Cove and bumper/AW Flat/hurdle/chase winner Cumbrian Knight.

Trainer Form: 2-8 for 25%    (10)
National average: 23% 
DSLW: 1
Course: 23% (214-925)
RPR: 143                     (10)                                   
Optimum Ground: Soft/heavy   (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m7f       (10)
Jockey: Katie O'Farrell       (7)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (47)

Main danger: Donnie Brasco 15/2

Beaten by a good sort on his seasonal bow, this is easier!

Blackjack Kentucky ran well for a long way from the front when second over the extended 2m3f here on his seasonal bow last month. He is expected to come on for that outing and improve for this step back up in distance. Tomorrow the Pacafi will have absolute optimum conditions regarding trip and ground and the only concern is the jockey booking although we must qualify this concern. Paul Nicholls told us via Betfair: "He is a winning Irish point-to-pointer who we expected to go close at Chepstow 17 days ago when he was second to a highly rated prospect of Colin Tizzard's. Trip and ground are fine for him and he looks to have a decent chance of going one better back at the same course."

Optimum conditions

To those reading this blog it is possible we might be biased because we are a part-owner of this horse but we have witnessed three of the last four runs and seen the progression and can confirm optimum conditions tomorrow! Had Harry Cobden rode our horse the price would surely be 4/5 or at least 10/11 but we have a certain Katie O'Farrell riding for us.

Initially

After the jockey booking was confirmed we confessed to being disappointed but since have a change of heart. She has ridden three for Nicholls recently being placed twice so fitness should not be an issue. The Racing Horse is the ultimate fan of Willie Mullins and was lucky enough to spend some fabulous time with him at Flemington Racecourse before the 2017 Melbourne Cup - what a man? Digressing, if he employed Katie O'Farrell to ride his good horses she must have been able to ride. But there is much more! Her statistics for this greatest trainer showed 6-27 for a big 22% and a huge level stake profit of +37.75. She was not riding odds-on favourites, this is underpinned by her rides for Gordon Elliott where she scored 4-33 for 12% (-1.90). In Ireland she has won 30 races for 17 different trainers and bagged her owners over €500,000 in prize money. It transpired she rode work for Elliott during the week and weekends for Mullins. Enough said...

Katie O'Farrell

Of his rivals

Holly James takes a big step up in trip having won over 2m at Ffos Las though Ben Jones’ allowance negates most of a 7lb penalty. Jepeck won easily over 2m7f at Bangor before failing to land the odds when runner-up at Southwell last time but the winner looked a potentially smart newcomer and Anthony Honeyball’s charge looks certain to fill a place but the one to beat must be Donnie Brasco.

Timeform

BLACKJACK KENTUCKY rates the clear form pick and is hard to oppose having chased home a useful sort here last time. But Donnie Brasco is much less exposed and showed up well on his debut for Kim Bailey at Ffos Las so should ensure Paul Nicholls's 6-y-o doesn't have things all his own way, while Holly James's pedigree suggests he will have a say too now he steps up in trip.

Value

So is the 11/10 value? If Blackjack Kentucky reproduces his last run, with the step up in trip and ground to suit, that should be enough and there is nothing in this race to fear though we expect Donnie Brasco to step forward and looks each-way value at 8/1. He was a point winner before making a promising rules debut when third over 2m3f here last month but well beaten by the Pacafi.

When asked by Betfair what his best chance of a winner today was, Nicholls said: "Blackjack Kentucky (12:55 Cheptstow). Has sound claims of gaining his first win over hurdles."

Finally...

We will be going to Chepstow to watch him win and hope Katie takes a lead, keep it simple and ride the percentages. We would be nervous if she rode the fractions from the front, Chepstow is a tough course and one you need to know.

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

 4 Min                1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +2.13  S/R   75%
 3 Blackjack Kentucky 2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R   67%
 2 Sommer Katze       2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.33  S/R  100%
 1 Envoi Allen        1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.83  +0.83  S/R  100%

November SELECTIONS: 4  WIN: 3  LOSE: 1  S/R: 75%   PROFIT: +2.13pts

(1121)   FINISHED First or Second (100%)

(SSSS) SHORTENS in price (100%)

14 Buveur D'Air      1.36  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.40  S/R  71%
13 Bristol De Mai    2.25  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +6.40  S/R  77%
12 King Ragnar       2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +7.40  S/R  83%
11 Mons Star R4      1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.48  +6.03  S/R  82%
10 Battleoverdoyen   1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +5.55  S/R  80%
 9 La Cavsa Nostra   2.20  WIN   1.00  +1.20  +4.75  S/R  78%
 8 Fusil Raffles     1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +3.55  S/R  75%
 7 Reserve Tank      1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  71%
 6 True Self         2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.02  S/R  67%
 5 Ottoman Court     2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.92  S/R  60%
 4 Mishriff          1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.58  S/R  50%
 3 Asmund            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  -1.38  S/R  33%
 2 Desert Peace      1.44  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R   0%
 1 Melbourne Cup     9.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R   0%

November SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 10  LOSE: 4  S/R: 71%   PROFIT: +5.40pts

(33111111111122)   FINISHED First or Second (85.71%)

(SSSSDDSSSSSSSS) SHORTENS in price (85.71%)

24 Ed'burgh Castle   1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +4.70  S/R  58%
23 Hamish F          1.72  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.70  S/R  61%
22 Kinsman           2.00  WIN   1.00  +1.00  +6.70  S/R  64%
21 Legends Gold      1.72  WIN   1.00  +0.72  +5.70  S/R  62%
20 Raaeb             1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +4.98  S/R  60%
19 Finery            2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +4.45  S/R  58%
18 Star Catcher      2.75  WIN   1.25  +1.50  +2.83  S/R  56%
17 Stradivarius      1.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +1.33  S/R  53%
16 Enrilo            1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +2.33  S/R  56%
15 Cobber Kain       4.30  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  +1.76  S/R  53%
14 Alrajaa           2.87  WIN   1.25  +1.62  +3.01  S/R  57%
13 Be Ahead          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +1.39  S/R  54%
12 Donnybrook        1.44  WIN   1.00  +0.44  +0.29  S/R  50%
11 Colour Image      2.62  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.15  S/R  45%
10 Silver Forever    2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.50  +0.85  S/R  50%
 9 Premier Power     1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  -0.65  S/R  44%
 8 Karisoke          1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -1.45  S/R  38%
 7 Enable            1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.45  S/R  43%
 6 Kahala Queen      1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +0.55  S/R  50%
 5 Under The Stars   2.75  WIN   1.00  +1.75  -0.25  S/R  40%
 4 Korsdane Wood     2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  -2.00  S/R  25%
 3 Hassaad           1.80  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R   0%
 2 Ballymoy          2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -2.25  S/R   0%
 1 So Sharp          4.00  LOSE  1.25  -1.25  -1.25  S/R   0%

October SELECTIONS: 24  WIN: 14  LOSE: 10  S/R: 58%   PROFIT: +4.70pts

(222111241161115121111123)   FINISHED First or Second (83.33%)

(SSDSSDSSSSDSDSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (75.00%)

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