The Racing Horse follows up our detailed piece on Charlie Appleby dated 27 APRIL 2018 and seek profitable areas to exploit? His All Weather figures are impressive but more so his Newmarket figures, and these courses will feature heavily in the first weeks of the racing resumption!
Top 6 racecourses since he started training in July 2013:
1 Kempton (AW): 84-298 for 28% +5.12
2 Wolverhampton (AW): 72-226 for 32% -45.80
3 Newmarket: 68-263 for 26% +68.69
4 Newmarket (July): 62-277 for 22% -25.63
5 Lingfield (AW): 58-192 for 30% +9.34
6 Chelmsford (AW): 34-127 for 27% -38.42
Total: 378-1383 for 27% -26.70 (-0.0193)
15 Newcastle (AW: 13-31 for 42% +17.43
34 Southwell (AW): 1-3 for 33% -1.00
SEEKING AN EDGE
The sample is large and results impressive and show four of his top six are on the AW but the other two are at Newmarket which is totally uncommon compared to ALL other UK trainers. Knowing and accepting this information gives us a real edge. Racking up winners at the home and headquarters of British Racing is so problematic given the quality, size of fields and composition of the racing there. He scores 130-540 for 24% and a level stake profit to SP of +43.06. Can you imagine those figures to best prices or even Betfair SP?
But we look at these figures a little closer and note at Newmarket he has also recorded 92 second places so effectively 222-540 have finished first or second for a massive strike rate of 41.11%. Another 73 have finished third producing 295-540 for a 54.63% strike rate of finishing in the first three. These figures are UNFILTERED and include multiple entries for all age groups, in all types of races, ridden by all types of jockeys. There is no evidence to suggest these figures will suffer fatigue going forward, especially given the comments from the trainer re seeking quality to quantity from hereon in.
IN PERCENTAGE CONTEXT!
Since January 2016 his national average is 26% so to hit 24% at Newmarket is quite remarkable and figures for his peers to dream about. In context, our number one trainer in the UK is John Gosden - he has a national average of 24% and records a 17% win strike rate at Newmarket so a 9% point difference.
Charlie Appleby: NATIONAL AVERAGE 26% NEWMARKET 24% (+0)
John Gosden: NATIONAL AVERAGE 24% NEWMARKET 17% (-9)
William Haggas: NATIONAL AVERAGE 23% NEWMARKET 17% (-10)
Michael Stoute: NATIONAL AVERAGE 20% NEWMARKET 14% (-16)
Mark Johnston: NATIONAL AVERAGE 16% NEWMARKET 13% (-21)
Richard Hannon: NATIONAL AVERAGE 13% NEWMARKET 12% (-25)
PROFIT BACKING CHARLIE APPLEBY 3yos BLIND
Looking at his last 5 seasons one could back his 3yos blind and incredibly make a profit to SP.
2yo AW: 36-120 for 30% -16.51
2yo Turf: 117-399 for 29% -35.78
3yo AW: 54-144 for 38% -7.35
3yo Turf: 89-386 for 23% +29.93
4yo+ AW: 10-38 for 26% -1.23
4yo+ Turf: 39-241 for 16% -46.21
Total: 345-1328 for 26% -77.16
From the above, the weakness in his numbers are his runners aged 4yo+ on Turf (-46.21) where his strike rate shows 16% so 10% below his national average of 26%. Should we remove this category his figures would read 306-1087 for 28% and a minute relative loss to SP of -30.95.
PACAFI & 3FAVINON
The Racing Horse has already made stable star Pinatubo our Pacafi and we expect him to win the 2000 Guineas. After a trial period last year our 3FAVINON strategy will start-up in earnest and we expect this strategy to supplement our Pacafi profits. The Charlie Appleby 3yos are certain to feature in our new strategy and we will post more news on the members area on Sunday. It was a surprise the trainer did not have an entry for the 6f Callerton Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+) or the 1m2f (1m2f42y) Annitsford Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+) on Monday given his great numbers at the course. He does have entries for Tuesday at Kempton...
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