PACAFI (24 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

TOROMONA 1.15 Newmarket at 15/8

Rossdales EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings) (Plus 10 Race) (Class 4) (2yo) 1m

Pedigree: Sixth foal; half-brother to winners Tasaday (inc at 2/Group 2; RPR 116), Tribal Beat (6f 2yo/1m Group 3; 114) & Silver River (1m4f AW; 94) dam 1m-10.5f winner (inc Gr 3; 114), half-sister to 1m Listed winner Tashkandi, granddaughter of 1m4f Gr 3 winner


Trainer Form: 5-11 for 46%    (10)
RPR: 92                       (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 1m          (10)
Jockey: William Buick         (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Albert Camus 11/4

 Beaten by high class prospect rated 91

Toromona was no match for Maximal, rated 91, when runner-up at Sandown though finished in front of third-placed Albert Camus. The interesting 2yo Novice Class 4 at Sandown on good ground has produced several smart performers in recent years, including subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda. The odds-on winner of this year's race looks a high-class prospect and the form of the race looks good. Toromona is bred in the purple and an eyecatcher both in the paddock/on track. He was weak in the betting so expected to improve massively. This is a scopey Shamardal half-brother to a couple of Group winners, who ran green but kept on nicely to chase the easy winner and should have little difficulty winning a race with this behind him and he looks a little more versatile than his main danger.

Trainer form

Charlie Appleby runs his colt here at Newmarket instead of Nottingham on Sunday in a Conditions race and must think he has the Gosden colt covered. Appleby has brilliant numbers at Newmarket but so does Gosden.

Charlie Appleby Newmarket (Rowley)
81-304 for 27%  Prize money: £2,661,166  Level Stake: +80.76 
John Gosden Newmarket (Rowley)
242-1420 for 17%  Prize money: £8,048,837 Level Stake: +80.27

Can you believe had you backed these two class trainers at Newmarket (Rowley) blind you could be banking a level stake profit of +161.03.

Appleby has scored 4 times from his last 7 runners at juicy prices including 5/2, 11/2, 5/2 and 5/1 so bang in form! His national average strike rate of 26% is 2% better than that of Gosden with 24%. Buick takes on Havlin and there is significant set of numbers attached to them at this course.

William Buick at Newmarket (Rowley): 116-706 for 16%
Rob Havlin at Newmarket (Rowley):     24-259 for  9%

Rob Havlin is a fine jockey and rides lots of Pacafi's for us but Buick is better and world class. Appleby sends 4 to Newmarket tomorrow and he might record a win double.


Derby entry and 40,000gns yearling Albert Camus was slowly away on debut against our Pacafi and had to be switched for a clear run in the closing stages. The John Gosden colt is the main danger and will be hard to beat. He looks a decent middle distance prospect. Royal Champion is related to the useful Outbox while Ryan Moore partners Vitruve, a full-brother to a winner and sharing ownership with Noman.


  Year in year out this is a strong maiden and TOROMONA can emulate 2017 winner and stablemate Ghaiyyath with victory in the race second time up having shaped really well on debut at Sandown a fortnight ago. Albert Camus was getting the hang of things late on behind the selection there and looks open to improvement himself. Keeper and Royal Champion head up the interesting newcomers.

 The 15/8 would be fantastic value but for Albert Camus who is a live threat hence our part-stake saver. Even with our part-stake saver we believe we have perceived value. For a newcomer to beat our front two they would have to record a RPR in excess of 90 over this mile for a 2yo. Mathematics are firmly on the side of the Pacafi.

20 Toromona (S)        2.87       1.25
19 Titian R4           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.20  +8.78  S/R 68%
18 Imrahor             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +7.58  S/R 67%
17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 19 WIN: 13  LOSE: 6  S/R 68%  PROFIT: +8.78

(2521211111211311111) FINISHED First or Second (89.47%)


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