PACAFI (29 September 2020)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

ROBINNIA 4.50 Punchestown at 6/4

Killashee Hotel Mares Maiden Hurdle (4yo+) (Inner) 2m4f120y


E16,000 F; first foal; dam placed 2m5f hurdle, half-sister to 2m7f chase/3m2f hurdle winner Spending Time out of useful bumper/2m5f and 2m6f hurdle winner, is granddaughter of unraced sister to high-class hurdler Marello

The Racing Horse Composite

Trainer Form: 6-23 for 26%    (10)
RPR: 112                      (10)                                             
Optimum Ground: Good          (10)        
Optimum Distance: 2m2f+       (10)
Jockey: Paul Townend          (10)    
Total:                        (50)

Main danger: Beth Horan 2/1

Should go close - Willie Mullins

Robinnia to be ridden by Paul Townend runs in the 2m 4f mares’ maiden hurdle. She was fourth on her hurdling debut here three weeks ago and with that experience and normal improvement she should go close today - Willie Mullins

Given a unintelligent ride!

Timeform comments reported: "Sligo bumper winner. Disappointing when only fourth on hurdling debut here 3 weeks ago but is capable of better" but we found them viewing the bare result and not the run itself. The truth is jockey David Mullins made far too much use of her from a long way from home on her debut run over hurdles, she was never going to last and it looked a very poor ride. 

Robinnia landed a Sligo bumper in convincing fashion but was well beaten when tackling this track and trip on her hurdling debut but she will be better ridden today by Paul Townend.

Trainer form

Willie Mullins has his horses in fine form with 3 of his last 8 runners winning. His last 14 days show 6-23 for a 26% strike rate which matches his 27% national average in Ireland jumps. Hard to believe if one had backed every Mullins runner at Punchestown they would have banked a profit. His figures at the course are 415-1875 for 22% (+0.82). This is his number one track for winners with Fairyhouse next best with 294. The trainer sends two to the course today.


Ruby Walsh rode 992 winners for Mullins at a strike rate of 30% and Paul Townend matches the strike rate with 533 winners from 1806 rides. Looking at the ride David Mullins gave the mare last time out we appreciate he is not a 'go to jockey' for win purposes and has a national average of just 12% and only recorded 3 winners since the racing resumption. He did make too much use of Robinnia last time and the negative comments about the horse in all the racing publications are wide of the mark.


Beth Horan looks the one to beat, she has shown plenty of potential in bumpers and this should be her game. Emma Prada is a winning point to-pointer and will be better for her hurdling debut over a trip too short on this track. Sempre Presto, a dual winner on the Flat for Richard Fahey, made a fair start for new connections at Navan after a year off and should improve.


 ROBINNIA was somewhat disappointing when only fourth on her hurdling debut here 3 weeks ago, but she's worth another chance given the impression she created when winning her sole bumper outing at Sligo. Beth Horan has shown a fair level of ability in bumpers and could improve for this step up in trip now switching to hurdling, while Emma Prada looks best of the remainder.

 The Racing Horse is convinced we have an even money shot running for us at 6/4 and 11/8 best price guaranteed. We do have a Gordon Elliott mare to beat but to date has only placed form in bumpers though she is sure to show improvement jumping hurdles, but she will have to be good to beat our Pacafi. We imagine Beth Horan leading tomorrow with Paul Townend taking a sit on Robinnia and playing his hand much later this time around.

Beth Horan traded at a low of 2.52 and BSP of 3.10 when losing last time, a race in which it led.

Robinnia traded at a low of 2.00 and BSP of 2.70 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently.

24 Robinnia R4         2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.05  +9.87  S/R 67%
23 Aaddeey             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +8.82  S/R 65%
22 Daysan              2.62  WIN  1.00  +1.62  +8.15  S/R 64%
21 Monday              2.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +6.53  S/R 62%
20 Toromona (S)        2.87  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +7.53  S/R 65%
19 Titian R4           2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.20  +8.78  S/R 68%
18 Imrahor             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +7.58  S/R 67%
17 Monsoon Moon        1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +6.91  S/R 65%
16 Al Sayaariyah R4    2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.12  +6.24  S/R 63%
15 Ready To Venture    1.90  WIN  1.00  +0.85  +5.12  S/R 60%
14 Toussarok (S)       3.25  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  +4.27  S/R 57%
13 Final Thoughts      2.75  WIN  1.00  +1.75  +5.52  S/R 62%
12 Jadoomi             1.67  WIN  1.00  +0.67  +3.77  S/R 58%
11 Ghaiyyath           1.62  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.10  S/R 55%
10 Second Slip         2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +4.10  S/R 60%
 9 Rich Dream          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +2.73  S/R 56%
 8 John Locke          2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +1.63  S/R 50%
 7 Tawleed             1.83  WIN  2.00  +1.66  +0.26  S/R 43%
 6 Galata Bridge       2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  -1.40  S/R 33%
 5 Nature Strip        1.61  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.50  S/R 20%
 4 Sharing             2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  -1.50  S/R 25%
 3 Bint Australia      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.00  S/R  0%
 2 Amtiyaz             2.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.00  S/R  0%
 1 Local Law           3.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.00  S/R  0%

SEPTEMBER: 24 WIN: 16  LOSE: 8  S/R 67%  PROFIT: +9.87

(252121111121131111124111) FINISHED First or Second (87.50%)

How to profit from the Pacafi


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