KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Tuesday 5 October 2021)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Racecourse Template for Kempton for Tuesday 5 October 2021. There is an 8-race card which includes 7 Handicaps and 1 Maiden race. The going is standard to slow.

Favourites Non-handicap            Favourites Handicap
2yo:    133-302 for 44% (-23.49)   34-120   for 28%  (-21.19)
3yo:    123-267 for 46% (-13.83)   168-544  for 31%  (-56.48)
4yo+:    47-103 for 46%  (+3.06)   253-815  for 31%  (-47.84)
Total:  303-672 for 45% (-34.26)   455-1479 for 31% (-125.51)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for current year        +/-  E
J & T Gosden (21%):  11-36 for 31%  (-6.19)      +10%  1
Roger Varian (20%):   9-27 for 33%  (-1.25)      +13%  1
Andrew Balding (15%): 9-45 for 20% (+30.72)       +5%  4 
Mark Johnston (15%):  9-48 for 19% (+22.57)       +4%  3 
Richard Hannon (12%): 9-70 for 13% (-32.50)       +1%  6

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for past 5 years        +/-  E
John Gosden (24%):    76-302 for 25%  (-32.34)    +1%  1
Richard Hannon (12%): 63-619 for 10% (-173.31)    -2%  6
Roger Varian (20%):   56-255 for 22%  (-26.11)    +2%  1
Andrew Balding (15%): 54-352 for 15%  (+22.03)    +0%  4 
Archie Watson (18%):  52-252 for 21%  (-24.02)    +3%  2

GODOLPHIN TRAINERS at Kempton for past 5 years    +/-  E
Charlie Appleby (28%):  41-111 for 37% (-18.92)   +9%  1
Saeed bin Suroor (21%): 32-140 for 23% (-20.55)   +2%  1
Total:                  73-251 for 29% (-39.47)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for current year         +/-  R 
Hollie Doyle (14%):      25-135 for 19% (-20.22)  +5%  0
Richard Kingscote (14%): 17-105 for 16% (-30.84)  +2%  8 
David Probert (11%):     13-108 for 12%  (+9.22)  +1%  0
Rossa Ryan (13%):        12-52  for 23% (+16.30) +10%  5
Oisin Murphy (18%):      12-53  for 23% (-17.64)  +5%  7 

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for past 5 years         +/-  R
Oisin Murphy (18%): 108-610 for 18%  (-96.49)     +0%  7 
Adam Kirby (15%):    76-613 for 12% (-225.03)     -3%  5 
Luke Morris (10%):   76-859 for  9% (-167.37)     -1%  4
James Doyle (20%):   71-305 for 23%  (+30.09)     +3%  0
Tom Marquand (13%):  69-661 for 10%  (-75.19)     -3%  0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton for past 5 years               E
Godolphin (28%):             80-284 for 28% (-45.81)   2
Hamdan Al Maktoum (22%):     51-229 for 22% (+30.16)   -
K Abdullah (24%):            28-118 for 24%  (-3.50)   -
King Power Racing (21%):     25-119 for 21%  (-3.18)   0 
S Hamdan bin Mohammed (20%): 16-81  for 20% (+14.71)   0 

HOT TRAINERS 06/09/2021 to 06/10/2021             +/-  E 
C Appleby (28%):    21-66 for 31.8%  (+9.45)      +4%  1
C Dwyer (16%):       4-14 for 28.6%  (-1.00)     +13%  2  
W Haggas (23%):    29-102 for 28.4%  (+1.23)      +6%  2
M Prescott (17%):    9-38 for 23.7%  (-8.95)      +7%  2
J & T Gosden (22%): 20-87 for 23.0% (-25.70)      +1%  1
S bin Suroor (21%): 11-49 for 22.4% (+38.32)      +1%  1
E Walker (14%):     10-45 for 22.2%  (+2.18)      +8%  1
E J-Houghton (12%): 11-50 for 22.0%  (+1.57)     +10%  3
C Cox (14%):        14-65 for 21.5% (+26.43)      +8%  2                      

TRAINERS COLD LIST      E
J Fox (5%):       54    1
Tom Clover (10%): 48    1
L Carter (5%):    40    1

HOT JOCKEYS 06/09/2021 to 06/10/2021              +/-  R
Georgia Dobie (11%):  4-14 for 28.6% (+13.50)    +18%  3
Adam Kirby (15%):     7-29 for 24.1% (+18.75)     +9%  5 
Jim Crowley (19%):   10-42 for 23.8% (+22.30)     +4%  1 
Cieren Fallon (13%): 16-68 for 23.5% (+11.04)    +11%  3
Rossa Ryan (13%):    14-75 for 18.7%  (+3.85)     +6%  5                 

JOCKEYS COLD LIST       E
M Harley (13%):    26   4 
S Mooney (3%):     25   2
C McKee (2%):      22   1
L Browne (12%):    21   2
E Walsh (7%):      21   2

FIXTURES
Tuesday 5 October 2021
Monday 11 October 2021
Wednesday 13 October 2021

(%): National Average  E: Entries  R: Rides (): Pertinence
  • FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Kempton over the past 5 years show 758-2151 for 35.24% and a big level stake loss to SP of -159.77. So although the strike rate is above the national average it produces a big loss. Winning favourites in non-handicaps have a decent strike rate in 303-672 for 45% and a small loss against a big sample of -34.26.
  • TRAINERS: Our top trainers like to send runners to course and reflected in their figures and scores above their national averages, of the 12 positions on our leader boards, 11 are showing an increase of their national average of between +1% to +13%. They saddle 19 runners and will surely dominate the meeting  using the jockeys named below!
  • JOCKEYS: Richard Kingscote has 8 rides, Oisin Murphy and William Buick 7, Rossa Ryan 5, Adam Kirby 5 and Luke Morris 4. 
  • OWNERS: Godolphin reign supreme at Kempton and have fantastic figures at the course. A combination of Charlie Appleby & Saeed bin Suroor has recorded 73-249 for 29% over the past 5 years. They have 2 runners at the course today.
  • DID YOU KNOW: David Evans is top trainer at Wolverhampton (11%), but his Kempton figures are dire showing 10-232 for just 4% over the past 5 years. Two courses, two surfaces, he runs two horses in the 4.58 Class 6 Handicap and both have our best jockeys riding. See MANUMISSION (William Buick) & WHISPERING ANGEL (Adam Kirby).
  • ALSO: James Doyle is a jockey often overlooked in the 'adulation' stakes, but he does more than go about his business. For example, at Kempton he trades at 23% (+30.09) which is 3% above his already high 20% national average. He has no rides today, but rides this course particularly well so one for the memory bank. Searching for context, Ryan Moore is acclaimed world class, his figures over the same time period show a national average of 19% and 21-117 for 18% (-27.53) at Kempton. He has no rides today but 3 tomorrow at Kempton. Note, he is currently 0-17.

4.58
THAKI (C Dwyer) hot trainer +13%, trainer £25.88 profit with winning favourites ✓

VIVENCY (B Johnson) weighted to win 70 > 60, trainer +7.63 at course and personal best figures

5.30
SENSE OF POWER (C Appleby) hot trainer and £29.81 profit with debutants and 37% at course since 2017, William Buick rides
NIGHT OF LUXURY (Saeed bin Suroor) beaten favourite last time out, hot trainer, RPR 90 highest rated

6.00
SMOOTH TALKING (K P De Foy) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides
MARSH BENHAM (C Hills) drops from Class 3 to Class 5
ODISSEO (M Botti) C&D winner, drawn wide but slow starter? 2-2 contesting nurseries

6.30
QUILTED (R Charlton) trainer 18% with handicap debutants, William Buick rides
GOING GONE (J Boyle) escapes penalty for romp at Epsom, much different surface?

7.00
MR ZEE (M Blake) trainer shows profit of £34.45 when one runner at meeting
SOPHOSC (I Williams) trainer shows profit of £18.37 with horses in first time headgear
SCHERBOBALOB (T Carroll) William Buick rides and is eye-catching booking

7.30
SHABBAB (R Hannon) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, backward step latest
ALDBOURNE (A Balding) beaten favourite last time out, first time cheek piece, Oisin Murphy rides
KNIGHT RIDER (K P De Foy) beaten favourite last time out, William Buick rides

8.00
PRIZEFIGHTING (C Cox) top rated, hot trainer and hot jockey

8.30
BUCKINGHAM (Eve Johnson Houghton) drops from Class 2 to Class 5
PROCLAIMER (J Camacho) C&D winner, been training well since wind operation, much more confident, Richard Kingscote rides ✓

NATIONAL AVERAGE

Please note the percentages in brackets for the Top 5 Trainers at Kempton show their national averages over the past 5 years.

Comparing current form or course form against that of the national average is our preferred measuring tool, the math suggests a factual position and not one of bias. Besides, the higher the national average, with respect to the other trainers, the greater chance of success. The higher the trainer's success rate, the more likely the horse is to win.

JASON WEAVER on KEMPTON

The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *