Royal Ascot RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Home Page)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our powerful RACECOURSE TEMPLATE, RACING TRENDS and BETTING ADVICE for Royal Ascot starting Tuesday 15 June 2021 to 19 Saturday June 2021. This will become our HOME PAGE.

Ascot hosts top-class racing both over jumps and on the Flat, but the highlight of the year is without doubt the five-day Royal meeting during June. Horses at Royal Ascot compete for over £6.5 million in prize money, and the Group 1 highlights throughout the week are the Queen Anne Stakes (won by Frankel), the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, the Gold Cup, the Coronation Stakes and the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. 

NON-HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)       HANDICAP RACES (5 YEARS)
2yo:   18-79  for 23% (-26.70)       3-5  for 60%  (+1.33)
3yo:   27-70  for 39%  (-3.37)     37-103 for 36% (+17.36)
4yo+:  32-82  for 39%  (-1.37)     40-126 for 32% (+32.91)
Total: 77-231 for 33% (-31.45)     80-234 for 34% (+51.59)

TOP 5 TRAINERS at ASCOT (past 5 years)
John Gosden:     41 wins from 241 for 17% (-43.10)
Roger Varian:    25 wins from 158 for 16% (-29.97)
A P O'Brien:     24 wins from 231 for 10% (-97.84)
Charlie Appleby: 22 wins from 130 for 17% (-23.05)
William Haggas:  20 wins from 159 for 13% (-43.56)

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at ASCOT (past 5 years)
Ryan Moore:      35 wins from 226 for 15% (-58.84)
Frankie Dettori: 34 wins from 144 for 24% (+25.38)
William Buick:   28 wins from 172 for 16%  (-4.90)
James Doyle:     23 wins from 164 for 14% (-47.34)
Jim Crowley:     22 wins from 210 for 10% (-25.95)

Before we look at form, racing trends or punditry we need to accept and absorb this racecourse template to understand what it is telling us. Non-handicap winning favourites do less well here than most other race courses and shows a loss in all age groups and only shows a strike rate of 33% which is at least 10% below the national average.

Because the run-in on Ascot’s round course is relatively short, positioning - jockeyship in other words - is key. It goes without saying that in steadily-run races you want to be towards the sharp end but, whatever the pace, you can get into trouble trying to come through rivals late on. We’re still learning about the straight course, following the relaying a few years back, but in my view it’s more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. Given the right pace to chase, I reckon you can win from anywhere - Jason Weaver

John Gosden is easily top trainer and scores at 17% but note, Aidan O'Brien only scores at 10% thus producing a huge loss to level stakes. Frankie Dettori reigns supreme at Ascot as his 24% strike rate demonstrates.

  • Oisin Murphy is currently 22-273 for 8% at Ascot, strike rate to RISE, certain to have winners next week! We will be providing OISIN WATCH, stay tuned. We will also follow Frankie Dettori, who will have winners also!
  • Conversely, Richard Hannon is 37-488 for 8% at Ascot, so best ignored! Richard Fahey is worse again 24-458 for 5%
  • The intention is to cover the Listed & Group races at Royal Ascot.

TUESDAY
2.30: QUEEN ANNE STAKES (Group 1) 1m
3.05: COVENTRY STAKES (Group 2) 6f
3.40: KING'S STAND STAKES (Group 1) 5f
4.20: ST. JAMES PALACE STAKES (Group 1) 1m
5.35: WOLFERTON STAKES (Listed) 1m2f

WEDNESDAY
2.30: QUEEN MARY STAKES (Group 1) 5f
3.05 QUEEN'S VASE (Group 2) 1m6f
3.40: DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (Group 2) 1m (Str)
4.20: PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (Group 1) 1m2f

 

2021 ROYAL ASCOT SCOREBOARD

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Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet we place is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a maths-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit. So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.

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The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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